Hormuz Crisis Tracker 2026 — Iran War Force Majeure & Supply Chain Monitor

As of Sunday 10 August the Strait of Hormuz remains effectively closed to normal commercial traffic. No successor agreement to the June MoU has been signed: Iran and Oman have reached an "understanding" on a 60-day reopening framework, but Iran's published draft would bar vessels it deems hostile, and Foreign Minister Araqchi has tied any reopening to US compliance with the original memorandum. No mine-clearance operation has been confirmed as under way. Latest verified Brent settlement is $83.55 (7 Aug close); Nigerian pump prices continue to fall unevenly after the Dangote and NNPC cuts.

Nigerian pump prices fell across multiple states as depots and marketers competed following the Dangote ex-depot cut and two NNPC reductions inside five days. The market remains fragmented, with wide station-to-station variance and no single verified national average for the weekend.

Brent settled at $83.55 a barrel, up $1.06 (1.3%), with WTI at $78.18, as traders weighed an end to the war against Iran's hardening conditions. Iranian Foreign Minister Araqchi said reopening the strait is contingent on Washington complying with the original memorandum. Iran published a fresh list of demands as the 60-day window dating from the mid-June MoU wound down.

Reuters reported Brent extending gains as Iran, working with Oman, suggested barring vessels it considers hostile from the strait — adding fresh uncertainty to any reopening. ABC News examined what clearing the Iranian sea mines would actually take, describing uncrewed surface vehicles as the means to keep naval EOD personnel out of the minefield. Nigerian marketers held pump prices near ₦1,260/litre despite the Dangote cut, while NNPC cut Lagos by ₦10 and Abuja by ₦36 — its second cut in five days — and six more depots reduced prices.

Iranian state media published a draft plan imposing restrictive conditions on ship traffic through the strait, reportedly including provisions to bar vessels deemed hostile. Brent jumped 3.8% to $82.49 and WTI about 2.8% to $77.29 on the news, having fallen roughly 8% earlier in the week on Treasury Secretary Bessent's suggestion a deal was imminent. CGTN reported Iran and Oman had reached an understanding on a reopening framework. In Nigeria, Dangote cut its ex-depot petrol price from ₦1,215 to ₦1,165 a litre, though Lagos stations mostly held at ₦1,240–1,260.

FreightWaves reported just eight vessels crossed the Strait of Hormuz on 5 August — five tankers and three bulk carriers — against more than a hundred a day before the crisis, while Iran and Oman worked to finalise a proposed 60-day reopening framework. AP reported both Washington and Tehran describing a deal as near, with Iran saying drafting with Oman was in its final stage, though concessions on one or both sides were still required.

USNI News reported Hormuz transit levels falling to lows not seen since March, down 52.4% for 20–26 July against the previous week, as Houthi forces in Yemen threatened Saudi tankers and widened the regional shipping risk to the Bab el-Mandeb. Kpler recorded a short-lived rebound in crossings on 28–29 July that had failed to hold by the 30th, with oil anchored near a reported $110 ceiling.

Kpler assessed that the Strait of Hormuz had re-closed, with the Bab el-Mandeb destabilising in parallel and compounding global supply outages. Analysts pushed recovery timelines into 2027 and reframed an extended conflict as the baseline scenario rather than the downside case.

An oil tanker exploded in the Strait of Hormuz after hitting a naval mine, according to Iranian state media, having allegedly deviated from a corridor Tehran had designated for shipping. Iran claimed to have intercepted at least six vessels in the preceding 24 hours; gCaptain reported a second tanker struck as the US-Iran shipping crisis deepened.

Kpler data showed daily Hormuz crossings down roughly 70% against baseline, with what traffic remained routed almost entirely through the corridor Iran controls and designates — handing Tehran effective control of the transit that continued.

NBC News reported traffic through the Strait of Hormuz had slowed to a near standstill as Iranian naval and drone activity increased, citing new transit data and the spillover of risk toward the Bab el-Mandeb.

Al Jazeera reported US strikes on Iranian defence and maritime facilities for a ninth consecutive night, with Iran responding tit-for-tat, and put cumulative US military deaths since the start of the war at 17. AP and the Council on Foreign Relations described the June interim deal as having collapsed less than a month after signature.

DWF published analysis of the litigation risk building from the extended Hormuz disruption, confirming that force majeure and supply-chain disputes were escalating through mid-July. Carriers including Evergreen Marine had invoked force majeure amid the collapse in transits, but no outlet published a dated, itemised list or a running cumulative count for the period after 19 June — the tracker's 43+ figure therefore remains a lower bound that has not been revised upward on verified evidence.

Iran's negotiator Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf declared the peace deal voided and said Iran's armed forces now had complete freedom of action, after a day of intense strikes on Chabahar and elsewhere.

After Iran allegedly struck three ships in the Strait of Hormuz, the US military attacked Iranian targets and Washington revoked the oil-sale exemption it had granted under the June memorandum, reimposing sanctions. President Trump said he believed the ceasefire and the interim agreement were over. Multiple outlets date the practical collapse of the MoU to this day — well before its 60-day clock expired.

CNBC reported the US military launching strikes on Iranian targets in retaliation for the attack on a commercial tanker in the strait, with Bahrain separately condemning an Iranian drone strike as a blatant violation. The week-old interim understanding was now under open strain.

A drone attack hit a cargo ship in the Strait of Hormuz between 24 and 26 June, the most serious test yet of the week-old US-Iran interim understanding and the trigger for the US strikes that followed on the 27th.

President Trump physically signed the interim US-Iran deal at the Versailles Palace on Thursday 18 June — not in Switzerland as had been planned. Video footage showed Trump pausing before putting pen to paper. "This was not easy," he told his audience, holding out his hands, before signing the first page (Al Jazeera). Iranian government spokesperson Fatemeh Mohajerani / Baghaei confirmed that because both sides had already signed the agreement electronically, there would not be a separate signing ceremony in Geneva, Switzerland, as had previously been expected. Negotiating teams from both countries still planned to travel to Switzerland; a decision on a possible in-person meeting was pending. Baghaei said Iran would monitor US compliance "without any leniency" and would not "fulfil" its commitments if Washington "evades its obligations." NBC News confirmed the MOU's key terms: the Strait of Hormuz will reopen, with Iran agreeing to allow "safe passage of commercial vessels with no charge for 60 days only" — not a permanent arrangement — followed by negotiations with Oman to define the strait's future administration. Under the 14-point MOU, the US will lift sanctions on Iran and unfreeze funds and assets linked to the Iranian regime, and Iran will be allowed to immediately sell its oil freely. Trump warned he could resume attacks if Tehran fails to honor its commitments. Talks on Iran's nuclear program, which were expected to start in Switzerland as soon as this weekend, have been postponed — the White House confirmed Vice President Vance's trip to Switzerland was put off, and the Swiss government confirmed the postponement. On the physical reality of the strait: Phillip Belcher, marine director of Intertanko, the trade group for global independent tanker owners, said the main central route through Hormuz is still closed, with an estimated 80 mines that need to be cleared. However, the smaller northern route, which passes through Iranian waters, and the southern route, through Omani waters, "now seem to be fully open." At least 10 commercial vessels were transiting the Strait Thursday morning, amid a noticeable increase in traffic hours after the signing. In Lebanon, Israel's military said intense fighting in southern Lebanon killed four Israeli soldiers on Friday — the conflict there continues despite the Hormuz agreement. Macron reiterated: "The resumption of maritime traffic, without restrictions or tolls, is an essential condition for regional stability and the global economy."