This tracker started with a single tweet. On the night of the US naval blockade announcement, political commentator Harry Sisson (@harryjsisson) posted a timestamped log of Trump's overnight Truth Social session — noting posts at 9:49pm, 9:50pm, 10:10pm, 10:32pm, 10:53pm, 12:43am, 2:35am, 2:36am, 2:37am, 2:37am, 2:38am, and 4:10am. The 12:43am post was the Hormuz blockade announcement. We saw the tweet surfaced on @RestIsPolitics on TikTok and the idea formed from there: what if you mapped every significant post by time of day, platform, and documented consequence?

The hypothesis crystallised around a statement made by JD Vance, Vice-President of the United States, on Fox News in September 2025 — months before the war began:

"Sometimes the president will call you at 12:30 or 2:00 in the morning, and then he'll call you at 6:00 in the morning about a totally different topic. It's like, 'Mr. President, did you go to sleep last night?'" — JD Vance, Vice-President of the United States · Fox News, September 2025

If the Vice-President himself is describing a president who routinely operates through the night, and that same president is now conducting a live military crisis via unmoderated social media posts, the question of whether sleep state affects the content and consequence of those posts becomes a legitimate analytical question — not a political one.

Hormuz Intelligence catalogues every significant Trump Truth Social and X post during the Iran War and Strait of Hormuz crisis (28 Feb 2026 – present), as well as the most consequential posts across his presidency (2017–2024). Every post is mapped by exact time, platform, and documented market or diplomatic consequence. The dataset now spans 107 days of conflict across 83 catalogued posts.

The central thesis is analytical, not political: a head of government who routinely posts between 10pm and 4am is not sleeping. Academic research consistently links sleep deprivation to increased impulsivity, reduced self-regulation, and poorer decision-making in novel, high-stakes situations — precisely the conditions of a live military crisis. Hormuz Intelligence asks: are the night posts objectively more escalatory, more market-moving, and more likely to require same-day retraction?

Based on 83 catalogued posts: 73% of night posts (10pm–6am) were associated with upward Brent crude moves in the next session, vs 44% of daytime posts. Night posts were 2.1x more likely to be walked back within 24 hours. The pre-Hormuz data shows the same pattern extends back to at least 2017.

An emergent finding: the dataset reveals a two-stage sleep-deprivation cycle. Night posts (10pm–4am) show the markers of impulsive, reduced-regulation communication: extreme language, market escalation, +73% Brent upward. Day posts then attempt to manage the fallout — through walkbacks, new demands, contradictions, and confused reversals — and consistently fail to stabilise the diplomatic track. On April 21 2026, senior administration officials publicly blamed the president's own posts for killing the negotiations (Fortune / CNN / WSJ) — the first documented case of a government's own team blaming its leader's social media for damaging its foreign policy. Night posts set the crisis agenda. Day posts fail to repair it.

Methodology

Brent crude price movement is measured within 8 hours of the post timestamp, using the nearest liquid session. Sources: Trading Economics, Investing.com, Barchart, EIA. Movements below 1% = "flat." Pre-2026 posts use the most relevant financial consequence (market move, S&P move, bond yield, diplomatic outcome).

Sources & Standards

All post text is sourced from contemporaneous news reporting and archival records. Truth Social and X have no public research APIs — this tracker relies on third-party documentation of posts at the time of publication.

This is not financial advice. The market correlations observed are associative, not causal — many factors drive Brent crude prices simultaneously. This is not a claim that all night posts cause bad outcomes: four night posts produced market drops (ceasefire signals, deadline extensions), and some daytime posts were among the most escalatory of the war.

This is not a partisan political statement — the sleep deprivation research applies to any decision-maker regardless of political affiliation. Positive-outcome posts are deliberately included to avoid selection bias. The methodology would apply equally to any head of government demonstrating this pattern.

Correlation between post time and market movement is associative, not causal. Truth Social has no public API — all posts sourced from third-party reporting. Some timestamps are approximate. Sample of 32 Hormuz-era posts is analytically meaningful but not statistically definitive.

Academic Research

These peer-reviewed studies provide the scientific basis for the hypothesis that late-night posting represents a measurably different cognitive state.

Quantitative findings — Hormuz era